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China Moon Racing

February 4, 2025 By Jack Vaughan

This first ran in January on my Medium Blog.

It’s been something of an afterthought since the US Apollo program ended in December of 1972, but the Moon is moving into the public spotlight again.

What’s becoming clear is that a new Moon race is well underway, one with plenty of participants but one most pointedly pitting China against the US.

The competition has a different character than it had in the now distant past — it’s become more a long-running endurance race and less the clearly defined sprint it was in the 1960s, when fear of Sputnik tended to unite sentiment in the US. [Read more…] about China Moon Racing

Random Notes: Pining for Blackwell, GPT 5

September 2, 2024 By Jack Vaughan

Happy Labor Day 2024 to Workers of the World!
Nvidia hits bumps in overdrive – That Wall Street meme is about to be cresting. A flaw in its Blackwell production plan is just that, we are assured. In a newsletter followup to a Jensen Huang earnings report interview as described by Bloomberg’s Ed Ludlow and Ian King:

Nvidia had to make a change to the design’s lithography mask. This is the template used to burn the lined patterns that make up circuits onto the materials deposited on a disk of silicon. Those circuits are what gives the chip the ability to crunch data.

At the least it is a reminder of the elemental fact that the course of semiconductor manufacturing does not always run smooth. As David Lee reminds on Bloomberg: Hardware is hard. Elemental facts are the first casualties in bull markets and technology hype cycles.

Even if the Gods of Uncertainty are kind, the educated consumer will allow that “Blackwell will be capacity constrained,” as quite ably depicted in Beth Kindig’s recent Forbes posting.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~

GPT 5, hurry fast! – This Blackwell Boding is marked with a rumored re-capitalizing of Open AI. And that with concerns about the delivery of GPT 5. Where is GPT 5? asks Platformonomics. In his Aug 30 edition of Platformonomics TGIF, Charles Fitzgerald bullet-points the reasons to be doubting that GPT 5 can round the bend in time. Possible explanations include:

*GPT-5 is just late — new scale brings new challenges to surmount

*It took time to get that much hardware in place

*Scaling has plateaued

*The organizational chaos at Open AI had consequences

*Open AI is doing more than just another scaling turn of the crank with GPT-5?

The skeptical examiner wonders if Open AI’s valuation wont edge down a bit, even though it is too big to fail and headed by the smartest man in the world. At the least, again, one has to observe the water level as it declines in Open AI’s moat.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Nunc ad aliquid omnino diversum

Deep Sea Learning – The Chicxulub event doomed 75 percent of Earth’s species. Details of the devastation were gathered by long core tubes drilled into the seafloor by the JOIDES Resolution ship now to be retired. It was a punch in the gut said a scientist.

Benthic foraminifera from Deep Sea off New Zealand.

In extra Innings

Danny Jansen in Superposition –  Plays for both teams in same game. In June he was at bat for the Blue Jays in Fenway when a storm stopped the game. Later, he was traded. In August the game was resumed, and he was now a catcher for the Red Sox. “Jays beat Red Sox 4-1, and Jansen shows up on both sides of box score – an MLB first!”

 

 

Mendelianum Musings

July 15, 2024 By Jack Vaughan

Source: Mendelianum Moravian Museum

I recently picked up for a summer read “The Gene” by Siddhartha Mukherjee. As I began to plow through the nearly 600-page book, it seemed to display the accidents and unforeseen circumstances that can track scientific research and technological innovation.

≠

The Gene begins with Gregor Mendel in the monastery in Brno, now a part of the Czech Republic. There the eventual founder of the science of genetics is perceived as slow, happy in the garden with his peas, not smart or articulate enough to be more than a substitute teacher. The friar abbots try and give him every chance to gain a useful education, and perhaps step up from substitute. And by some phenomenal luck, he’s sent to study in Vienna. Thus, to study under no less than Doppler.

Yes, he comes to study under Austrian physicist Christian Doppler, the mathematician and physicist who proposed that the perceived pitch of sound or the color of light was not fixed but depended on the relative locations and velocities of the observer and the source. His principles on the nature of change in wave frequency influence work that led to today’s radio astronomy efforts, radar, sonar, and more. It must be seen as a happy accident, for Mendel to learn from Doppler, even if he never passed an exam.

Mendel patiently raised peas in his garden. He experimentally crossbred the pea plants and dutifully documented the results. Some viewers have seen him as a plodder, with no theoretical understanding of underlying forces at work. But author Mukherjee assures that Mendel knew “he was trying to unlock the material basis and laws of heredity.”

The author also writes that Doppler’s example as a physicist informed Mendel’s efforts. Mendel found the elements that could reveal an underlying pattern that could be described numerically as he arrayed different bits of data on plants – height, texture, color. That is, a numerical model that marked the inheritance of traits.

This ended up in a research paper presented to the Natural Science Society in Brno. But Mendel’s station at the far reaches of the scientific community assigned his work to a type of oblivion that was a long time in lifting.

Mukherjee cites a geneticist describing this period of oblivion as “one of the strangest silences in the history of biology.”

The Mendel story contrasts with Darwin’s story in Mukherjee’s work. Darwin had a position close to the center in the scientific culture of his day. But Darwin and others struggled to move the science of heredity forward after the big bang of Origin of the Species.

The mechanism was already described — or pointed to — in some measure by Mendel, but his duties as a cleric  led him to be “choked by administrative work,” and his paper became for him a capstone, as he labored as a sanctified clerk. Gradually over decades his work was discovered and replicated, eventually triggering a general evangelization of Mendel.

Yes, the initial wilting on the vine of Mendel’s work was not anything that couldn’t have been foreseen. As Mukherjee observes, Darwin’s reading of his keystone paper took place at the Linnean Society in London. August, not? But Mendel presented at the Natural Science Society of Brno, far afield. That Mendel’s work slashed steadily, like a scythe through the pages of time, until it reached an audience, speaks volumes for its worth. – Jack Vaughan

Related
The Gene – On Amazon
On the Road to the Double-Helix – Progressive Gauge Blost

Net neutrality is on the books again

April 28, 2024 By Jack Vaughan

[Updatte: In August 2024, the Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals issued a temporary stay on the implementation of these rules.]

[April 26, 2024] – The stars and planets may seem in their usual places this morning, but change came overnight, as Net Neutrality returned to America. If you blink you missed it, and it’s not guaranteed to stick.

Net Neutrality is again on the books, as the Federal Communications Commission on Thursday voted to restore rules requiring telecommunications companies to treat all apps and sites equally.

“It is incredibly important that there be ongoing oversight for the most important network of the 21st century. It’s that simple,” former FCC chief Tom  Wheeler said on  the Politico Tech podcast on the eve of that vote.

Voted in when Wheeler led the FCC during the Obama era, and then out during the Trump Administration, net neutrality is a technology hot potato in this partisan political climate. Like other Trump era edicts US President Joe Biden has reversed, this one will be challenged via litigation and legislation going forward.

But a return to the Internet as a regulated utility is important. That means no throttling, no superfast lanes, no favors for golf buddies. As the Three Stooges would say: “None of this and none of that.”

That look at blocking is a look back, and not the point today, Wheeler says.

“To define it in terms of no blocking and no throttling. I mean, that is so much yesterday’s issue. The broader question here is, will there be an ongoing expectation for all of the activities of this really important 21st century network? And will there be flexibility on the part of the FCC to deal with those?”

Wheeler’s caution comes as regulation of any kind is widely derided, even as Artificial Intelligence doomsaying predicts an internet more volatile than the often rocky network it is today.

Wheeler, a former cable industry executive who now teaches at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government outlines the issues in his  “Techlash – Who makes the rules in the digital Gilded Age?” – a recent book that looks for guides in the history of communications.

The premise of the book is that it’s valuable to look to the 19th century Gilded Age as a clue to what’s going on now in communications.

In the 19th century there were great waves of industrialization as steam, trains and electricity gained traction, workers were exploited, farms gave way to cities, and Robber Barrons leveraged all.

Today, we all agree, there’s been great waves of technology changing the way we live, and how that is communicated. What we came to call mass communications – evolved out of the telegraph, the telephone, radio and television. These all took time to settle….

This is how Wheeler poses it in Techlash:

“While the economic model is still about maximizing revenue, it is no longer about the need for balance and veracity. Like the early ideological media, the new media profits by playing to users’ preferences and prejudices. The difference is that software algorithms organize the information to deliver what each user likes in order to hold the user’s attention to see as many revenue generating ads as possible.”

Technology companies make money “through the most sophisticated and secret content curation ever devised,” Wheeler writes. Let’s take this to include Big Data, algorithms, collaborative filtering, portals, recommendation engines, personalization engines and a parade of machine learning models.

With a next age of AI bubbling in a slew of Large Language Models, that secret curation model has already remade media and society. Having an FCC that works for a neutral network is important as that next age looms. – J Vaughan

Multicloud: Evolving technology paradigms create rising complexity

February 13, 2024 By Jack Vaughan

Late last year I had the opportunity to cover Multicloud issues for Muse at SDxCentral, and it was a bit of an eye opener in this regard. We were writing about cloud over 30 years ago, and utility and grid computing before that. But a visit to cloud computing today finds obstacles yet to confront.

The Multicloud milieu today seemed to say there was still very little in the way of deep integration between clouds, all these years later. It seems another case in the evolution of computing  where every new solution seems to hold the seeds of its own obsolescence.

Read Evolving technology paradigms create rising complexity on Medium

 

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